It's Been a While

I've not been posting all this time because of two reasons:

1. The Oilers are not in the playoffs, and as such I don't feel the need to post daily about other teams' success, or lack thereof.

2. My exams were all in three days of hell, so I had no time in between studying and wasting as little time as possible eating and sleeping, and if I don't have time to eat, then I guarantee you I don't have time to blog. Twitter is a different story ;)

So I thought we'd check up on my predictions, see which ones are still good, which ones are failing and which ones failed miserably; I know there's at least one.

SJS in 6 or 7

The latter half of this is still possible, but the Sharks are going to have to pick it up if they want to take this series, which at this point seems unlikely. Series stands at 3-2 Ducks.

DET in 6

Detroit won this one easily in 4. Columbus didn't put up much fight, and Rick Nash hardly even showed up, save for the last game. That said, it was their first ever playoff run, so at least their fans got to see some playoff hockey, and the team earned some valuable experience that will do nothing but help the club moving forward.

STL in 6

*sigh* Van swept STL. I hate Vancouver, but St Louis clearly did not have the tools to match Vancouver's goaltending or their scoring prowess; despite the fact that Matts Sundin cannot seem to help the team offensively for some reason. If I was a Leafs fan I'd say it was because he left his heart in Toronto, but I'm not so I won't ;)

CHI in 5

Won't be CHI in 5, but it may be in 6. I hope it is, because truth be told Chicago is the better team, even with all prejudices aside. Calgary just doesn't have the pieces to take on the well-balanced and well-planned roster of the Chicago Blackhawks.

BOS in 4 or 5

Was Boston in 4. Montreal never had a chance in this series, and I think every one, save for Habs fans, knew that going into the match-up. Better luck next season Montreal.

WSH in 6

This has been an interesting series. NYR was up 3-1 on the Caps, and they've managed to battle back to tie the series at 3. Game 7 will be in Washington's building, and with the kind of momentum they've got going their way at the moment I can't see New York pulling this one out. Could happen though.

NJ in 7

Game 7 goes tomorrow. Has been the closest and most interesting first round series bar none. Save for the first and sixth games (4-1 NJ and 4-0 CAR respectively) the series has been incredibly tight, all of the games in between having been won by a single goal. In one case the game ended up at 1-0 for NJ. Ridiculous. I hope CAR pulls this out, but it will likely be close.

PIT in 6

Was Pittsburgh in 6. Wooo! I got one right! What do I win? Oh, the chance to predict the second round? Awesome! Good times!

Last possible games go Wednesday, so I'll see you Thursday to talk Round 2. It should be a good time!

Playoffs! Let's Get The Run Down!

Wait. Do you smell that? Ah, yes; the playoffs are here! Sans-Oil, but I’ve already dwelt on that for long enough.

There are several teams that I’m cheering against, and a couple that I am cheering for. But let’s go over the matchups and my initial reactions, because that’s fun... Well, at least for me!

The Western Conference:

1. San Jose Sharks vs 8. Anaheim Ducks
This should be interesting. With San Jose’s injuries and Anaheim’s physical style of play this could actually be close. If San Jose can pull their offense from the beginning of the season out of a hat then Anaheim’s in some serious trouble, which is good for me because I’ll be rooting for San Jose this round; I want the Ducks to lose.
Prediction: San Jose in 6 or 7. Long series, but San Jose was picking it back up at the end of the season, and I think they’ll overpower Anaheim.
2. Detroit Red Wings vs 7. Columbus Blue Jackets
This matchup should be tons o’ fun. Columbus is a team that I’m cheering for, but they’re in tough against a well-built Detroit team that hasn’t deteriorated in my history of watching hockey, which I’ll admit is not that long. That said, Detroit hasn’t always had the best success in the playoffs, and Columbus is making the playoffs for the first time in their history this year, so that should add some pretty good fire to their game. The first time we all get to see Rick Nash in the playoffs? Should be great fun!

Prediction: Unfortunately I’m going to have to say Detroit in 6. I really want Columbus to prove me wrong. Really bad.

3. Vancouver Canucks vs 6. St Louis Blues
I hate the Vancouver Canucks. So I’ll be cheering for St Louis here. I think it should be an interesting series, though I’m not sure what to expect from it. I’m hoping that St Louis’ momentum from the last couple months carries them through this series, but Vancouver has been playing well of late as well. That said; Vancouver has never had any kind of playoff success, so that’s a plus for St Louis.
Prediction: St Louis in 6. This is a shaky prediction, but I think that Matts Sundin’s lack of production comes back to haunt Vancouver, and their lack of playoff success plants doubt in their minds when they don’t have success early.
4. Chicago Black Hawks vs 5. Calgary Flames

As with most Oiler fans I have a serious hatred for the Flames. That said it is a respectful hate, unlike my hate for Vancouver. I do think that Calgary’s lack of success down the stretch is going to be a problem come tonight, especially with Chicago’s speed and offensive prowess. Chicago is a team that I think has a decent shot at the cup this year if they can pull it all together. Khabibulin is going to have to be unbelievable.

Prediction: Chicago in 5. I think the Flames are outmatched here. Chicago will make short work of the Flames and their Regehr-less defensive corps.


Eastern Conference

I don’t have a lot of ties to the eastern conference, so I don’t have a lot of teams to cheer for or against.

1. Boston Bruins vs 8. Montreal Canadiens

I'm pretty sure the Habs haven't got an ice cube's chance in hell of beating Boston. This is going to be short and one-sided, the closest series to a sweep as far as I'm concerned.

Prediction: Boston in 4 or 5.

2. Washington Capitals vs 7. New York Rangers

I love watching Ovechkin play, so I'm hoping the Capitals can pull it out for a couple rounds so we can watch him more often. Green is also a treat to watch on the back-end. Lundqvist can be a beast in net though, so this could be interesting.

Prediction: Caps in 6.

3. New Jersey Devils vs Carolina Hurricanes

I want to see Erik Cole do well, so I'll be cheering on Carolina for this series. That said, New Jersey and Brodeur will be a diffucult hurdle to jump.

Prediction: Unfortunately, I'm gonna have to say Jersey in 7. I want Erik to prove me wrong though. Prove me wrong!

4. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers

I'll be cheering for Pittsburgh here, because I'm in love with Sykora, and I like Garon, though he probably won't get playing time unless Fleury goes down. *knock on wood* Philadelphia won't take this lying down, and I'll be looking for some solid physical hits. That said, we've seen in the past that this kind of play tend to ger Flyer players suspended.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in 6. Should be a good match-up, I hope Sykora scores a lot!

Alrighty, all set for tonight.

Unrelated Note: Tambellini meets with the press in three minutes, watch it live here.

Oilers @ Flames; Frustration

Alright, so.... The Oilers won last night. 5-1 actually, in a most decisive way might I add. Yes, the Flames were majorly short-handed, but we're a non-playoff team, and they're on their way to a post-season. This implies that they're much better than us, and, while perhaps winning wasn't as easy as it could have been, keeping it close should have been relatively simple to do. It wasn't, and that's not because the Flames were worse than they should have been, it's because the Oilers played much better than they have in the majority of the season. I'd say the exceptions being just before the all-star break and a few games here and there, like the last Vancouver game.

I'm glad I'm not one who pulls their hair out when they're frustrated, because I'd be balder than Messier right now.

If that's possible.

Why? Why is this the way it goes? We were in a playoff spot, then we dropped out; managed our way back in, then tanked until it was virtually impossible for the team to make it. Now, I remember saying yesterday that if Anaheim or St. Louis gets a point in any of their last two games that it doesn't matter any way; and both did and have since clinched a playoff spot. But I lied, it does matter.

I'm tired of having the Oilers be the butt-end of jokes for the past three seasons. I'm tired waking up and wondering which Oiler team is going to be on the ice that night. I'm tired of reading articles entitled something like, "What Went Wrong in Edmonton This Season." I'm SICK and TIRED of listening to cynical fans who consistently want to believe the worst, and will broadcast it to any one with ears.

I'm glad I love hockey as a game and not just the Oilers, because that at least means that I'll watch the playoffs any way, and I'll watch the World Championships, and I'll join in speculation about who will make the Olympic team, both Canada and USA.

There was one comment, said in passing, by one Sheldon Souray yesterday on Sportsnet that really bothered me. It went something like this:

-Broadcaster asks question regarding the difference between home and away performance this season-

Sheldon Souray answers some of the regular jargon and then throws in something along the lines of, "I guess we just don't feel like we have to put on a show [when we're on the road]."

Here's the thing, Sheldon. You do have to put on a show. Because you're a professional athlete, and once you're an athlete at this level, and people pay hundreds of dollars per game to see you play you better be damn certain you're putting on an effing show. I don't think I hear professional musicians complain about how when they go on stage the people in the audience expect a show; I've never heard a theater actor complain about it either. We pay to see all of you play. So, yes, Sheldon; we do expect a show, and that's true of any NHL arena or fan base. Why don't people go to see the L.A. kings play in their home barn? Because they don't think it's entertaining. It's not a show to them.

Of course, that's before people get an emotional attachment to the team. At which point we can't stop watching even when you've stopped performing for us.

There are rumors today that the Edmonton Oilers are close to signing Denis Grebeshkov to a two-year deal that is a considerable raise over his current contract. Alright, so this means we've got to be shipping someone out the door on the back-end, but who is it? Personally I'd like to see Gilbert AND Staios find new homes. I'd then bring up Chorney and Peckham full time and move Smid up to either first or second pairing duties. I've stated before that I think Ladislav and Sheldon together would be a monster pairing, but I don't think the coaching staff would want to move Ladislav up so quickly. That said, he did play on the top pairing in his rookie season if I remember correctly. I do believe that Ladislav is ready for some serious responsibility, and this gives us room to think about moving some other, perhaps more expensive, pieces to someone who needs them. Gilbert is a nice bargaining chip, and no one can deny that fact, so I'd package him with someone who would be a little harder to move, say a Staios or a Moreau.

It'll be an interesting off-season. That's for sure.

As Always: Go Oilers Go.

Author's Note: I should make mention that I only used L.A. in the above example because of the value of hockey as entertainment, this was not an attack on the team.

Flames @ Oilers; Playing for Spite

Tonight we have an opportunity to put wrenches in the plans of Calgary. The Flames are looking to be first in the North West division, thereby insuring themselves home-ice advantage in the playoffs.

There are a few problems with those plans:

First, the Flames have not been playing well. They've also had some late season injury issues that no one wants to deal with.

Second, the Canucks won last night. This puts them in first in the NW and 2 pts ahead of CGY.

Thus, if we win these next couple games we can screw Calgary out of home ice advantage.

Hoo. Freaking. Rah.

This would also be a kick in an undesirable area for Oil fans, because that would mean that had we not lost against LA, we might've had a chance. But we won't know that until the standings are set in place, and if STL or ANA win either of their final two games it won't matter anyway.

As Yukon Jack reminded us all: club ABC. A.B.C.

As Always: Go Oilers Go!

Oilers Vs Kings.

I think Dan Tencer said it best this morning on Twitter:

"#Oilers could be mathematically eliminated tonight if they don't get the job done. They get what they deserve if they lose to LA."

Will we be put out of our misery tonight? We'll see.

I'll likely be missing some, if not all, of the first period.

I hope that I can receive some good news on the Oilers front when I get home for the second and third.

As Always: Go Oilers Go!

Ales Hemsky: A Defense

I don't particularly want to drag this on or anything, but I can't help it.

I wrote a post on March 25th entitled: Hemsky Frustrated; Gets Berated By Fans For Being Vocal. The general purpose of said post was essentially to get people to realize how ridiculous they were being about the whole Journal article thing. Turns out that a lot of Oiler fans have taken the issue personally, and not with me but with Ales Hemsky himself.

Now, these people have not explicitly stated that they now have an issue with Hemmer, but from the kinds of things that they say and/or write one can certainly draw this conclusion, and with relative ease.

I'm not going to single people out. I don't want to pull people out of the pack for a number of reasons:

• First: I don't want this to become a personal thing against me, and if I were to pick on a few individual people then feelings could be hurt, tempers fanned etc.
• Second: Taking a few people's quotes out of a body of people who have said the same thing or agreed with the speakers would be unfair.
• Third: I don't have permission to use people's quotes, nor do I want to seek out permission. People are less than inclined to allow quotes when the writer wants to criticize them.

Alright, deep breath, and let's get started.

I'm sick and tired of hearing people call Ales Hemsky selfish. Until the article came out I was under the impression that every one thought that Hemmer was clearly one of, if not the most unselfish player on the team. The fact is that Hemsky was frustrated, and riddle me this, "What do you do when you're frustrated?" Well, if you're healthy in the head you probably talk about it. It's not selfish, it's not immature, it's healthy. That said, was the Edmonton Journal the best outlet for that frustrated energy? I think we can all agree it wasn't. This makes the outburst ill-advised, not selfish.

I read a post on the OMB that talked about how many times the article said me, my, we, or the team etc. Okay, first let me help you off that horse because you aren't a very good rider. Second, the article was about him, what pronouns would you use when you're talking about yourself? Not to mention that that analysis strategy is incredibly superficial. If you want to analyze based on pronoun usage you are also required to analyse the context within which each pronoun is used. And of the I/me/my pronouns this is what I got out of the context:

In regards to his own play: 14

In terms of the team's success: 3

Talking about his own benefit: 18

Speaking about coaching strategy: 7

So that makes it 18/42 uses that are only about Hemsky, which is not even half. That said, this kind of analysis can be subjective, and I support any one else's efforts towards analyzing the article themselves with their own categories if necessary.

Another thing that bugs me is when people seem to place some sort of blame on Hemsky for lack of powerplay production. Here's the thing, Hemsky is not the only guy on the ice, and when a goal is scored on the PP it is rare that Hemsky didn't have a hand in it. Hemsky is responsible for the majority of PP production, but this doesn't mean that he is responsible for the lack there-of. How so you ask? I shall answer this with more questions: Does Hemsky coach the powerplay? When the Oilers practice does the coaching staff leave the ice? "See ya later Ales, be back in a few hours for the game." Yeah, I'm sure that's exactly what happens. If anything is the issue it is the focus on the point-shot, and that is a coaching strategy not Hemsky's decision.

Anything related to the following schemas drives me insane: "Hemsky should've had that if he wants to be our go-to guy" "That's the kind of play Hemsky should have if he wants to be our star player" "Hemsky should've done _____ if he wants to be our go-to guy". Yeah, because all go-to guys make alll plays perfectly. It seems like any time Hemsky makes a single mistake some of the fans are on him like a pride of lions stalking a gazelle on the Serengeti.

I get it, they think that the article was a bad idea, they think it makes Hemsky look selfish, or that his real colours are starting to show. Bad timing or not when was a good time to bring it up? After the season ends when you're damn near ready to kill someone? Hemsky is a quiet person from what I've heard, and quiet people don't speak up about things unless they're already unbearable for said person. But I digress . . .

Call me a fan, call me biased, call me whatever you want but there's one thing you won't get to call me, and that's disloyal.

Vancouver@Edmonton; Paper vs Ice

I don't have that much to say about this game. The fact is that all I can think about regarding the team these days is that one more loss can just put us all out of our brutal misery. The Oilers sit at 81 points and we only have four games left, meaning that at the most we end up with 89 points which would require the team to run the table. The team's longest win streak this season was a four game streak to start the season, and that was almost pure fluke.

I really don't want to say too much about the alleged 'Katz Text', however I will say this: After a season like the one we just experienced, and by we I mean both the organization and the fans, changes have to be made. The problem with this team is not small, if it had been we would've seen a solution put forth by now. The majority of people that I've spoken to think that the change needs to be MacTavish, and I am inclined to agree with them; not because I think he's a bad coach, because he's not, but because this team has clearly been slowly drifting away from the kind of team that MacTavish has the arsenal to coach. We're a small team that uses skill, speed, and finesse to win games. MacTavish has shown that he shines best when he's got a gritty team with size that's willing to work its ass off every second of every shift of every period of every game. The team we iced this year either did not have the drive or did not have the parts to be cup contenders. Neither of which do I place solely on MacT or Lowe's shoulders.

The fact is that when I look at this team we sound good:

Souray, a defensemen with an insane point shot that works incredibly well in powerplay situations. He's also got one hell of a mean streak, and who doesn't like players with a mean streak?

Lubomir Visnovsky, who before his injury was proving all of the people in LA wrong with his defensive responsibility. He had 31 points and was a +6 before he got injured.

Sam Gagner, Patrick O'Sullivan, and Andrew Cogliano who are all filled with skill and have a great head for the game. I haven't seen enough from O'Sullivan to be able to confidently classify him in a certain role or player type, but I like what I've seen thus far, despite the lack of production. Gagner, though he struggled earlier in the season, has been working hard all season and that's paying off now. Cogliano, who has struggled a little, and I stress the little, over the past week or so; but he's been solid for us this season, and he was the only one of the kids not to have to deal with the offensive slump of the dreaded sophmore season.

Ladislav Smid, who has come into his own this season as a solid stay-at-home D-man with some offensive flair that has been showing up more often as he feels more comfortable with his own place on the team.

Denis Grebeshkov, who has come a long way from a couple of seasons ago, when we thought we had basically exchanged one MAB for another.

Zach Stortini, who has been gradually improving to a point where I don't cringe when I see him engage in a fight, in fact he's had a couple good ones this season.

Kyle Brodziak, who I feel doesn't get near enough recognition on the team, he kills penalties effectively, hardly ever takes penalties, plays a physical type of game, and if last season was any indication he can also become a legitimate scoring threat with the proper linemates.

Shawn Horcoff, who despite his oversized extension that kicks in next season and his lack of production this season, has worked his ass off for this team and never looks like he's coasting or being lazy.

Ales Kotalik, who's been unbelieveably good for us of late. He's got chemistry with Hemmer and I'd like to keep him if possible. He's a forward that plays the point on the powerplay, kind of like Stoll used to, and he's got one hell of a one-timer.

I think I'm forgetting somebody... Oh yeah:

Ales Hemsky, who has been unbelievable at times this season. Say what you want about his comments in the Journal earlier this season, but the fact is that he's our best player, and his contract is one of the best in the league. No way I'd trade him and I've been appalled at the ammount of people who have suggested it. Hemsky seems to get better as his career wears on, and I think he likes the city. He's now scored 20 goals in back to back seasons, and he's become the face of the franchise, and while he may not score as many goals as Ovechkin or Crosby he has just as many highlight reel-ers.


So then the question is: What the hell happened?

I don't know, but after reading Lowetide's Ch-ch-ch-Changes article I'm kind of frightened of what may actually occur this offseason.

From the article:

What we now have is an old fashioned dog-and-pony show, with everyone but Ziggy Stardust and Iggy Pop getting involved. Ethan Moreau told us today there will be changes and the kids are different now and the special teams weren't helped and if you read between the lines he's saying don't trust anyone under 26.

A fine mess we have here. A little while ago I suggested that if MacT stayed we could predict a few of the players heading out (Penner, Pouliot, Nilsson). After today I think we might be looking at something deeper here, something resembling a really big mistake.

Really big.

Yikes.


As Always: Go Oilers Go!

San Jose @ Edmonton; Probabilities.

So, here's the situation.

The Oilers are sitting at 81 points with 5 games left.

The last two playoff spots are held by Nashville and Anaheim, each with 84 points.

That is 3 points ahead of Edmonton.

Anaheim:
Home Win%: 48.7%
Away Win%: 52.6%
Home games left:2
Away games left:3
Proportional home wins: 1
Proportional away wins: 1-2
Probable point total come end of season: 88-90

Nashville:
Home Win%: 59%
Away Win%: 39%
Home games left:2
Away games left:3
Proportional home wins: 1
Proportional away wins: 1
Probable point total come end of season: 88

St Louis:
Home win%: 55%
Away win%: 40.5%
Home games left: 1
Away games left: 4
Proportional home wins: 0-1
Proportional away wins: 1-2
Probable point total come end of season: 85-89

Minnesota:
Home win%: 52.3%
Away win%: 41%
Home games left: 3
Away games left: 2
Proportional home wins: 1-2
Proportional away wins: 1
Probable point total come end of season: 85-89

The Oilers:
Home win%: 43.2%
Away win%: 50%
Home games left: 4
Away games left: 1
Proportional home wins: 1-2
Proportional away wins: 0-1
Probable point total come end of season: 85-89

Take away from that what you will; but what I take away is this:

If the Oilers want to make the playoffs they better start breaking some of their patterns that they've established.

No more excuses boys.

As Always: Go Oilers Go!

Sad Puppy Dog Face

See, this is what I mean when I say that the Oilers are like a dog to me. Because my dogs can do nothing that will make me hate them forever and ever.

I already feel bad for saying the team didn't try.

Like really bad.

In The End: They're My Team.

Last night I was choked. Probably the most angry I've been at the team in my history as a fan. In the playoffs we tried hard despite the end result, in 06/07 we traded Smyth and had a multitude of injuries, in 07/08 we had a bit of a miracle run that just couldn't be sustained for as long as the team needed it. But, what's our excuse this season?

The fact is that there isn't an excuse that the team can come up with that will be sufficient to cover the disappointment of this season. Not when we were told that we were going to ice a cup contender in October, not when we were supposed to challenge for the NW division title. Not when the team that took the ice every night looked like they were half-asleep and coming off a night of binge-drinking and cocaine. I thought we got rid of those guys?

The Oilers, as an organization, not the team, should really learn a lesson here. You see, if they hadn't have gotten all of our hopes up in October - if they hadn't hyped the team til we were all buzzing in anticipation - the disappointment that we are feeling now as fans would be much less. No doubt it would still be there, but it would be severely minimized, and we wouldn't be feeling this other strange emotion: betrayal.

The game last night was a joke. A slap in the face for fans, that until this morning was a monumental p--- off. This morning, it's just comedic. The Oilers come out and score first, and then they take their foot off the gas, as per usual, and allow the opposing team to tie it up, then we start taking stupid penalties. Cue up the second period where the visitors score early on the PP and then add a couple more for good measure throughout the period. The third period comes up and the Oilers go down further, allowing another goal. Less than five minutes to go in the game and someone makes a point of mentioning to the team that they are, in fact, playing a hockey game here, and they may want to pick it up if they want to win. So the Oilers turn it on and score a few times, only to come up short by at least one goal.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

And all of this after asking us for our support, because it really mattered to them. Yeah, looks like we made a huge difference last night. I have news for you: we've been here all season supporting you and making excuses for your butt. Where have you been?

As much as I am frustrated with this team this year, I still love them. I guess they're like a dog who didn't do what I wanted it to do; as a dog lover, I'll still love it tomorrow. I was just angry at it for not doing what I asked of it.

What we all asked the team to do.

Try.