Oilers @ Sharks; How is the Organization Going to Do This?

The Oilers are in San Jose tonight, and I've long since gotten over our odds of winning this game. The Oilers, while spending to the cap, are one of the worst teams in the league this season, which puts us into a lottery pick where we stand right now. There have been some fantastic posts over at Lowetide about the organizations situation, as well as possible moves that the organization could be looking to make. Today, however, Lowetide discusses the fact that trades just don't happen as often in today's NHL, and makes the point that the upcoming 'rebuild' is likely to be facilitated more through the draft than trade.

This has some sobering truth to it. Every year we, as Oiler fans, tend to get caught up in discussions about possible trades, and the sad part is that with the amount of trades that go down each year, even at the trade deadline, the trades we theorize are incredibly unlikely. Not just because we often overvalue our players, especially those the organization wants to get rid of, but because trades just aren't common anymore.

Does that mean that we should stop thinking of trades? Absolutely not. Theorizing trades is one of the few things that keep us sane throughout a season like this one, and the last couple seasons as well.

According to NHLNumbers.Com the Oilers have about 0.952 M in cap space. You'd think that we have the worst situation in terms of cap spendage relating to performance, but actually Carolina is worse: 0.262 in cap space and they're in last place in the league.

This puts us in a situation where we need to unload contracts and bring back cheap players, prospects, and/or draft picks. There are a few roster decisions that need to be made about the Oilers. The current roster looks like this:

Shawn Horcoff: 30 yrs old, cap hit of 5.5 for 5 more years after this season.
Dustin Penner: 26 years old, cap hit of 4.250 for 2 more years after this season.
Ales Hemsky: 25 years old, cap hit of 4.100 for 2 more years after this season.
Patrick O'Sullivan: 24 years old, cap hit of 2.925 for one more year after this season.
Fernando Pisani: 32 years old, cap hit of 2.500; last year of his contract. UFA
Robert Nilsson: 24 years old, cap hit of 2.000 for one more year after this season.
Ethan Moreau: 33 years old, cap hit of 2.000 for one more year after this season.
Sam Gagner: 19 years old, cap hit of 1.625; last year of his contract. RFA
Mike Comrie: 28 years old, cap hit of 1.250; last year of his contract. UFA
Andrew Cogliano: 22 years old, cap hit of 1.133; last year of his contract. RFA
Marc Pouliot: 24 years old, cap hit of 0.825; last year of his contract. RFA
Gilbert Brule: 22 years old, cap hit of 0.800; last year of his contract. RFA
Zach Stortini: 23 years old, cap hit of 0.700 for one more year after this season.
Ryan Stone: 24 years old, cap hit of 0.600; last year of his contract. RFA
Jean-Francois Jacques: 24 years old, cap hit of 0.525; last year of his contract. RFA
Ryan Potulny: 24 years old, cap hit of 0.595; last year of his contract. RFA

Lubomir Visnovsky: 32 years old, cap hit of 5.600 for 3 more years after this season.
Sheldon Souray: 32 years old, cap hit of 5.400 for 2 more years after this season.
Tom Gilbert: 26 years old, cap hit of 4.000 for 4 more years after this season.
Denis Grebeshkov: 25 years old, cap hit of 3.150; last year of his contract. RFA
Steve Staios: 35 years old, cap hit of 2.700 for one more year after this season.
Ladislav Smid: 23 years old, cap hit of 1.300 for one more year after this season.
Jason Strucwick: 33 years old, cap hit of 0.700; last year of his contract. UFA

Nikolai Khabibulin: 36 years old, cap hit of 3.750 for 3 more years after this season.
Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers: 25 years old, cap hit of 0.625; last year in his contract. RFA
Devan Dubnyk: 23 years old, cap hit of 0.700; last year of his contract. RFA

Total Cap hit: 59.830
Average Age: 27.1 years

Here's what I'd do with our current roster:

Keep:
Dustin Penner (4.250)
Ales Hemsky (4.100)
Zach Stortini (0.700)
Lubomir Visnovsky (5.600)
Ladislav Smid (1.300)
Khabibulin IF healthy (3.750)

Offer a New Contract:

Sam Gagner
Patrick O'Sullivan
Mike Comrie
Gilbert Brule
JFJ
Ryan Potulny
Ryan Stone
One of JDD or DD

10 FW
2 D


Possible additions via prospects:

Peckham
Chorney

Penner Gagner Hemsky
Brule Comrie O'Sullivan
JFJ Putulny Stone
New New Zach Stortini

Smid Visnovsky
New New
Peckham Chorney

Khabibulin
JDD or DD

Average Age: 25.3
Average Height: ~6'0"
Average Weight: ~203 lbs
Average Height of FW: ~6'0"
Average Weight of FW: ~202 lbs
Average Height of D: ~6'0"
Average Weight of D: ~204 lbs

I'm terrible with figuring potential contracts for players, so I'll leave that alone. I'll also leave the 'New' spots open for later speculation.

This picture I've painted isn't one of drastic rebuild. What I've done is eliminated some of the big contracts. That said, this is all easier said than done. Several of the undesirable contracts will need to be traded or bought out if we're wanting to get rid of them. This also gets rid of some of the log jam in the forwards. Makes our average size a little higher as well. The top six are still a pretty small group (under 6' on average, and ~197 lbs on average, and that's including a 6'4" 245 lb Dustin Penner skewing the numbers), but the quantity of small forwards is decreased. MPS and Eberle are possibilities that should also be mentioned. Eberle is small, though MPS isn't, and with the skill available there it is somewhat likely that one or both of these young men will be on the roster next season, especially if they have strong training camps. The difference in their sizes negates any real effect on the team average, but their contracts, as they'll be entry level, would be good for the team's cap issues.


Back to the Matter At Hand:

The Oilers are in San Jose tonight, playing a team that they have little to no chance of beating.  A good effort and low turnover numbers is all I'm asking.  Oh, and please don't leave the starting Goaltender out to dry...  That too.

Go Oilers Go!