Where I think the Oilers should be come the end of January

Okay, so everyone who lived in Edmonton during the last 20 or so games of last season knows that every where you turned people were discussing the chances of the Oilers making the playoffs, who had to beat who, who had to lose that night, how many games the Oilers could afford to lose at that point etc.
Well, while I realize that it is a little early to be thinking about clinching a playoff spot, the rest of January will give us a pretty good idea of where the Oilers will be at the end of the season, or at the very least exactly how fried our nerves will be going down the stretch. I’ve looked at all of the teams in the Western Conference that I think are catchable math-wise within the next couple weeks, especially considering that some of the teams in the top 8 aren’t playing their best hockey of the season right now. This post will be quite long, so if you would rather see the short-version scroll down to the summary near the end. For those of you who are a little more robust please read on at your leisure.
Okay so the teams that I think the Oilers are in a position to possibly catch are: Anaheim, Vancouver, Phoenix, Columbus and Minnesota (who we’re already tied with). I’ve copied down each team’s Current Record, GF/GA, Average Goals per Game, Average Goals Against per Game, Last 10 Games Record, Home Record, Away Record, Games left in January and which of those games are Home games and which are Away games and which teams they’re playing each game against (I’ve also obtained the same some of the same stats for the teams each of Anaheim, Vancouver, Phoenix, Columbus, Minnesota and Edmonton are playing, these stats are located at the end of the post).
For the purpose of this post I will only count wins, because OT losses complicate things mathematically. Also, the win totals for each team are merely gut feeling and hunches on my part, there are no real stats that are telling me which games the team will win/lose.
We’ll start with Anaheim, currently in 5th place in the West.
Anaheim:
Current Record: GP:44 W: 22 L:17 OT:5 Pts:49
GF/GA: 126/124
Avg Goals/Game: 126/44 = 2.864
Avg GA/Game: 124/44 = 2.818
Last 10 Games:4-4-2 = 40%
Home Record:13-9-3 = 52%
Away Record:9-8-2 = 47.4%
Games Left in January: 8 Games
Home: Red Wings, Black Hawks
Away: Penguins, Wild, Rangers, Islanders, Coyotes, Avalanche

Okay, so in their last 10 games they’ve went 4-4-2. 6 of their last 8 games in January are on the road where their record is 9-8-2, essentially they’ve won about ½ of the games they’ve played on the road this season. They’re playing against the Penguins, who’ve won about 45% of their games at home, the Wild, with a 54.5 win percentage at home, the Rangers, with a 58.3 win percentage at home, the Islanders, with only a 33.3% win percentage at home, the Coyotes, with a 65.2% win percentage at home, and lastly the Avalanche, who’ve won 61.9% of their games at home. 2 of their games are at home, the Ducks have won 52% of their home games. They play against the Red Wings, with an away win percentage of 61.9%, and the Blackhawks, who have a road win percentage of 47.6%. Likely the Ducks will win 3-5 of their next 8 if the current trends continue.

Vancouver:
Current Record: GP:45 W:22 L:18 OT:5 Pts:49
GF/GA: 130/125
Avg Goals/Game:130/45 = 2.889
Avg GA/Game: 125/45 = 2.778
Last 10 Games: 3-5-2 = 30%
Home Record: 11-9-2 = 50%
Away Record: 11-9-3 = 47.8%
Games left in January:5
Home: Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Predators, Wild
Away: Sharks

The Vancouver Canucks’ performance has dropped notably as of late, they’ve only won 30% of their last 10 games. They’ve only got 5 games left in the month of January, four of which are at home. That said the one that they’ve got on the road is a near definite loss to the Sharks who haven’t lost a single game in regulation at home this season, they’ve only lost two in OT. The rest of the games for the Ducks are at home versus the Coyotes, 28.6% win% on the road, the Blue Jackets, 34.8% win% on the road, the Predators, 40$ win% on the road, and the Wild, 45% win% on the road. That said, the Canucks have only won 50% of their home games this season. Canucks win 2-3 of their games remaining in January if current trends continue.

Phoenix:
Current Record: GP:44 W:21 L:18 OT:5 Pts:47
GF/GA: 109/126
Avg Goals/Game:109/44 = 2.477
Avg GA/Game: 126/44 = 2.864
Last 10 Games:5-4-1 = 50%
Home Record:15-6-2 = 65.2%
Away Record:6-12-3 = 28.6%
Games left in January: 7
Home: Red Wings, Ducks, Sabres
Away:Canucks, Flames, Oilers, Sharks

The Phoenix Coyotes have gotten the majority of their wins this season at home, however some of their remaining games in January at home will be tough ones. The Red Wings (61.9% road win%) in particular are a great hockey team, the Ducks (47.4% road win%) won’t go down easy, and the Sabres (47.4% road win%) won’t be pushovers either. On the road the Coyotes have been comparatively terrible: 6-12-3. They play the Canucks (50% home win%), the Flames (69.6% win% at home), the Oilers (45% home win% [blech]), and the Sharks (90.9% win% at home). Looking at everything I say that the ‘Yotes win 1-3 of their next 7.

Columbus:
Current Record: GP:43 W:21 L:18 OT:4 Pts:46
GF/GA: 115/117
Avg Goals/Game:115/43 = 2.674
Avg GA/Game: 117/43 = 2.721
Last 10 Games:7-3-0 = 70%
Home Record:13-6-1 = 65%
Away Record:8-12-3 = 34.8%
Games left in January: 7
Home:Devils, Red Wings, Senators, Stars
Away: Canucks, Oilers, Flames

Columbus is 7-3-0 in their last ten, but they have a clear difficulties winning on the road. At home the Blue-Jackets play: Devils (57.1% win% on the road), Red Wings (61.9% win percentage on the road), Senators (19% road win%), and the Stars (36.4% win percentage on the road). The Blue-Jackets themselves have a home win percentage of 65%, their road win percentage is not near as impressive at 34.8%. On the road they play: The Canucks (50% at home), The Oilers (45% home win% [again, BLECH]), and the Flames (69.6% win% at home [MAJOR BLECH]). When all is done I think the Blue-Jackets will win 3-5 of their next 7.

Minnesota:
Current Record: GP:42 W:21 L:18 OT:3 Pts:45
GF/GA: 106/97
Avg Goals/Game:106/42 = 2.524
Avg GA/Game: 97/42 = 2.310
Last 10 Games:5-4-1
Home Record:12-7-3 = 54.5%
Away Record:9-11-0 = 45%
Games left in January: 7
Home:Oilers, Ducks, Kings, Maple Leafs
Away:Black Hawks, Oilers, Canucks

The Minnesota Wild are currently tied with Edmonton in 9th/10th place in the West. They’ve won 50% of their last ten games and have an incredible GA average of just 2.31 per game. They have four games at home and three games on the road to finish January. At home they play: The Oilers (54.5% win percentage on the road), The Ducks (47.4% road win%), The Kings (35.6% win% on the road), and the Maple Leafs (36.4% road win%). On the road they play: The Blackhawks (68.4% home win%), the Oilers (45% win% at home), and the Canucks (50% win% at home). When all is said and done I think the Wild will probably win 3, maybe 4 of their next 7.

Edmonton:
Current Record: GP:42 W:21 L:18 OT:3 Pts:45
GF/GA: 118/125
Avg Goals/Game:118/42 = 2.810
Avg GA/Game: 125/42 = 2.976
Last 10 Games:6-4-0 = 60%
Home Record:9-8-3 = 45%
Away Record:12-10-0 = 54.5%
Games left in January: 6
Home: Coyotes, Blue Jackets, Sabres, Wild
Away: Wild, Avalanche

Edmonton, as we all know very well, has an issue with consistency. That said, the Oilers are playing relatively well lately and are on a 2 game winning streak. Their win% at home isn’t that great, but it is getting better, and their road record is one of the best in the league. Unfortunately only 2 of their games are on the road in their last 7 in January. They play the Wild (54.5% win% at home), and the Avalanche (61.9% win% at home) on the road. At home they play the Coyotes (28.6% win% on the road), the Blue Jackets (34.8% win% on the road), the Sabres (47.4% win% on the road), and the Wild (45% win% on the road). Truth be told the Oilers have some winnable games coming up, I think if the Oilers continue to play like they have in the past couple games and Roloson continues his great play the Oilers can win 4-5 of their last 6 in January. That said if Roli doesn’t play well and the scoring dries up we could win just 2 or 3 of the games.
~~
SUMMARY

If everything plays out the way I think it will the standings (from #5 - #10) should look like this (including the highest number of wins in the range I stated):
5. Anaheim – 59 Pts
6. Columbus – 56 Pts
7. Edmonton – 55 Pts
8. Vancouver – 55 Pts
9. Minnesota – 53 Pts
10. Phoenix – 53 Pts
~~

Stats for the teams that #5-#10 are concerned with play:

Red Wings
Current Record: GP:42 W:29 L:7 OT:6 Pts:64
GF/GA: 157/118
Avg Goals/Game: 157/42 = 3.738
Avg GA/Game: 118/42 = 2.810
Last 10 Games: 7-1-2 = 70%
Home Record: 16-3-2 = 76.2%
Away Record: 13-4-4 = 61.9%

Blackhawks:
Current Record: GP:40 W:23 L:10 OT:7 Pts:53
GF/GA: 143/103
Avg Goals/Game: 143/40 = 3.575
Avg GA/Game: 103/40 = 2.575
Last 10 Games: 6-4-0 = 60%
Home Record: 13-2-4 = 68.4%
Away Record: 10-8-3 = 47.6%

Penguins:
Current Record: GP:44 W:21 L:19 OT:4 Pts:46
GF/GA: 134/137
Avg Goals/Game: 134/44 = 3.045
Avg GA/Game: 137/44 = 3.114
Last 10 Games: 3-7-0 = 30%
Home Record:9-9-2 = 45%
Away Record:12-10-2 = 50%

Rangers:
Current Record: GP:45 W:26 L:15 OT:4 Pts:56
GF/GA: 120/118
Avg Goals/Game: 120/45 = 2.667
Avg GA/Game: 118/45 = 2.622
Last 10 Games: 4-4-2 = 40%
Home Record: 14-8-2 = 58.3%
Away Record:12-7-2 = 57.1%

Islanders:
Current Record: GP:43 W:12 L:27 OT:4 Pts:28
GF/GA: 110/156
Avg Goals/Game: 110/43 = 2.558
Avg GA/Game: 156/43 = 3.628
Last 10 Games: 2-7-1 = 20%
Home Record: 7-10-2 = 33.3%
Away Record:5-17-2 = 20%

Avalanche:
Current Record: GP:43 W:22 L:20 OT:1 Pts:45
GF/GA: 116/124
Avg Goals/Game: 116/43 = 2.697
Avg GA/Game: 124/43 = 2.884
Last 10 Games: 6-4-0 = 60%
Home Record: 13-8-0 = 61.9%
Away Record: 9-12-1 = 40.9%

Predators:
Current Record: GP:43 W:20 L:20 OT:3 Pts:43
GF/GA: 106/121
Avg Goals/Game: 106/43 = 2.465
Avg GA/Game: 121/43 = 2.814
Last 10 Games: 4-6-0 = 40%
Home Record: 12-7-1 = 60%
Away Record: 8-13-2 = 34.8%

Sharks:
Current Record: GP:42 W:32 L:5 OT:5 Pts:69
GF/GA: 150/99
Avg Goals/Game: 150/42 = 3.571
Avg GA/Game: 99/42 = 2.357
Last 10 Games: 7-1-2 = 70%
Home Record: 20-0-2 = 90.9%
Away Record: 12-5-3 = 60%

Sabres:
Current Record: GP:42 W:21 L:16 OT:5 Pts:47
GF/GA: 120/117
Avg Goals/Game: 120/42 = 2.857
Avg GA/Game: 117/42 = 2.786
Last 10 Games: 5-3-2 = 50%
Home Record: 12-9-2 = 52.2%
Away Record: 9-7-3 = 47.4%

Flames:
Current Record: GP:42 W:26 L:12 OT:4 Pts:56
GF/GA: 157/118
Avg Goals/Game: 157/42 = 3.738
Avg GA/Game: 118/42 = 2.810
Last 10 Games: 8-1-1 = 80%
Home Record:16-4-3 = 69.6%
Away Record: 13-4-4 = 61.9%

Devils:
Current Record: GP:43 W:25 L:15 OT:3 Pts:53
GF/GA: 132/113
Avg Goals/Game: 132/43 = 3.070
Avg GA/Game: 113/43 = 2.630
Last 10 Games: 6-4-0 = 60%
Home Record: 13-8-1 = 59.1%
Away Record: 12-7-2 = 57.1%

Senators:
Current Record: GP:41 W:14 L:21 OT:6 Pts:34
GF/GA: 98/120
Avg Goals/Game: 98/41 = 2.390
Avg GA/Game: 120/41 = 2.927
Last 10 Games: 2-7-1 = 20%
Home Record: 10-7-3 = 50%
Away Record: 4-14-3 = 19.0%

Stars:
Current Record: GP:41 W:18 L:17 OT:6 Pts:42
GF/GA: 117/140
Avg Goals/Game: 117/41 = 2.854
Avg GA/Game: 140/41 = 3.415
Last 10 Games: 5-3-2 = 50%
Home Record: 10-6-3 = 52.6%
Away Record: 8-11-3 = 36.4%

Kings:
Current Record: GP:42 W:17 L:19 OT:6 Pts:40
GF/GA: 104/117
Avg Goals/Game: 104/42 = 2.476
Avg GA/Game: 117/42 = 2.786
Last 10 Games: 4-6-0 = 40%
Home Record: 12-10-6 = 42.9%
Away Record: 5-9-0 = 35.7%

Maple Leafs:
Current Record: GP:43 W:16 L:21 OT:6 Pts:38
GF/GA: 124/154
Avg Goals/Game: 124/43 = 2.884
Avg GA/Game: 154/43 = 3.581
Last 10 Games: 2-8-0 = 20%
Home Record: 8-9-4 = 38.1%
Away Record: 8-12-2 = 36.4%